Man…what a twisty, bendy road Hollywood walks leading up to its biggest night. Favorites that seemed like a lock just one month ago look shaky in the light of early spring, and unlike previous years, there doesn’t seem to be as big a stable of heavy favorites as what many come to expect at this late hour. Still, like last year, the year before, and the year before that all proved, guessing is half the fun (watching Will Smith melt down in real time provides the other half).
As is our wont, the Scene-Stealers crew has assembled some of the awards season opinions of its contributors, offering up sassy reads and hot takes alike. There are a few givens, to be sure (cough cough…Jessie Buckley), yet there’s a chaotic and gonzo sort of energy hanging over the whole affair fueled in no small part by the state of the world in which this Oscar ceremony finds itself arriving. And while the big fight of the evening is likely going to be between Sinners and One Battle After Another, there’s plenty of question marks hanging over this Sunday evening, including…
WHAT WILL BE THE BIG NARRATIVE OF THIS YEAR’S OSCARS?
Jonah Desneux: It’s got to be Sinners vs. One Battle After Another competing for the top prize! Sinners clearly has momentum after making history with its 16 nominations; however, anyone plugged into the awards discourse during the Fall Season knows that OBAA was prematurely carrying the crown. I think they’ll each win various awards throughout the night and keep us on the edge of our seats for who will take Best Picture. That said, if Timothee Chalamet ends up having the all-time career he’s striving for, winning his first Oscar for Marty Supreme may end up being Sunday’s most memorable event in the grand scheme of Academy history.
Warren Cantrell: The two-horse nature of the race is a lot of fun, and is rightfully at the center of the awards conversation right now. The last couple of years have been an expected split in the big five, or a near-sweep (Anora/EEAO/Oppenheimer), so it’s nice having an awards season that feels more or less wide open. I also don’t feel like there’s an outright villain or party crasher this year, which makes the prospect of a surprise win by any of the camps an unexpected treat.
Sophie Williams: The world around us is too messy, terrifying, and huge to ignore. There are two paths: that of the Grammys, with winners speaking candidly and openly about the political moment; or that of the Berlin Film Festival, with the fear of rocking the boat taking the lead. As much as I love him, I fear if the night is good for PTA and OBAA, we should prepare for the latter. If the night is good for Sinners, I believe we are in for a blunter evening. If Jafar Panahi is called up for a win, I do think we are in for a very different night no matter what. One of my favorite filmmakers of all time, a staunch critic of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Ayatollahs, but a vehement anti-authoritarian whose feelings about Trump have not been hidden, either, his presence onstage may be enough to wake some quieter planned speeches into being more aware. The other note I should bring up is just HOW exciting this race is. Save, basically, just for Jessie Buckley and KPOP Demon Hunters, I have no confidence in any picks for any of these categories. We are coming off a wild, messy awards season with no real trends in winners, and I have rarely enjoyed a race more.
Timothy English: I think Sinners is gonna be a big focus on the night (internally anyway). Also, I think the conversation will be dominated by the impending duel between Timmy and Michael B. and probably Leo, too, because you never know with the voters. But externally, I think Trump is going to loom over everything because of course he will. All these good people will spend the evening talking about Iran and transgender rights and Trump will sit on his phone and tweet about how much he hates Hollywood. But seriously, Sinners.
Eric Melin: There were sadly few statements about what is happening in the world today at the Golden Globes, even from filmmakers whose movies are actually engaging with that subject. So, the story at the Oscars will be how (if?) most of the filmmakers decide to speak up and say something.
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST SUPRPRISE OR SNUB IN YOUR OPINION?
Sophie Williams: I think any snubs I may highlight this year come from how packed a season it has been? Who would you drop from either male acting category to make room for Jesse Plemmons in Bugonia? I guess I feel okay about dropping F1 to bring It Was Just an Accident or The Testament of Ann Lee into our BP lineup, but even then: which of those (or even If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Blue Moon or Sorry Baby) do you go with? Sorry Baby missing screenplay is probably my biggest personal sadness, but I knew that one was coming for some time. Same with Highest 2 Lowest missing on editing, sound and leading actor. The one real exception is in Leading Actress. I love Kate Hudson, but what the fuck is she doing here? Jennifer Lawrence, Eva Victor, and Amanda Seyfried are all right fucking there. Fix yourself, Oscar.
Eric Melin: Jafar Panahi should have been nominated for Best Director and his movie, It Was Just an Accident, should’ve been nominated for Best Picture. These are inconceivable snubs, especially considering the fact that he had to shoot his movie in secret so that the Iranian government couldn’t stop him, and there is seemingly no better way that his story could have been told. This is a life-affirming tale about general human kindness that is by turns hilarious and haunting, and it’s a goddamn shame not more people will hear about it. My other big snub is Jesse Plemons failing to gain a nomination for best actor in Bugonia. He has been consistently stellar over the past decade and more in a series of supporting roles that he always makes deeper and bolder, but here he carries the entire film as the character that you start off thinking is a caricature but end up feeling like he’s got some justification for his conspiracies since he got hurt and beaten down his entire life. Plemons somehow makes every twist of this emotional roller coaster seem believable and empathetic.
Joe Jarosz: There were a couple of snubs that surprised me. Brendan Fraser’s performance in Rental Family was just as strong, if not better, than his work in The Whale. Jesse Plemons killed it in Bugonia. But Weapons only getting one nomination blew my mind. Amy Madigan earned her Best Actress nomination, but how did Zach Cregger get shut out of Screenplay and Director?
Warren Cantrell: The disrespect shown to Weapons has been an abomination, and I, for one, will not stand for it. Interesting, timely, prescient, and written with such a careful, deliberate, and thoughtful approach to the material, it was the film of the summer (eat a dick, F1) and should be sitting on a raft of nominations. Jesse Plemons not getting a nod for Bugonia was only slightly less egregious, though he really did run into a buzzsaw with Leo, MBJ, and Chalamet in the mix.
Timothy English: This is one of those rare academy awards where I just don’t think there are any huge snubs. Maybe Jesse Plemons for Bugonia. He was freaking amazing in that movie and Emma Stone, as amazing as she is…she’s just not as great as she is in this movie without my man Jesse.
Jonah Desneux: No Other Choice getting completely boxed out was my biggest surprise. However, the biggest snub has to go to Amanda Seyfried being left out of the Best Actress nominations for The Testament of Ann Lee. None of the film’s songs being nominated is also a major surprise and snub.
WHAT ARE YOUR BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS? WHO IS THE FAVORITE, AND WHAT’S A LONGSHOT DARKHORSE YOU LIKE?
Joe Jarosz: The Academy is finally going to listen to the public and give the film that was one of the most popular in 2025, Sinners, the award. But, if you’re asking for a longshot darkhorse… let me give the statue to Frankenstein. Guillermo del Toro created another epic with his signature style.
Eric Melin: I love Sinners and how it uses genre to tell a unique story about culture and music, but One Battle After Another is a once-in-a-generation film. I’ve seen both of them many times, and OBAA continues to get richer because there’s so many layers underneath all of the character development and action. On the surface, it’s just an extremely entertaining ride, but peel back the craziness, and there’s a lot of resonant ideas about where our country has been and where it could be headed. It deserves to win. At the time of this writing, Sinners is currently favored, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Also, there is no darkhorse. Hamnet is challenging emotionally, but not intellectually.
Jonah Desneux: I thought it would be One Battle for the longest time, but I’ve recently started to sway towards Sinners. I can easily picture the night ending with that entire team on stage, standing victorious. Maybe Hamnet sneaks back in as a dark horse? It could have been the safe pick the whole time.
Timothy English: I think Best Picture is down to One Battle After Another and Sinners. If there’s a darkhorse in this category that could actually beat one of those movies, it is probably Hamnet. It just seems like one of those movies, as good as it is, that would win this year and then in 10 years we’d all be wondering what the hell were they thinking? For most of the last three months I had assumed OBAA seemed like a sure-fire Oscar winner but now I feel like Sinners has so much momentum (especially after the Actors Awards).
Warren Cantrell: If I was in the Academy I’d vote for Train Dreams because it was 2025’s best movie in a historically amazing year for Hollywood filmmaking, but it doesn’t have a prayer, and that’s okay. Despite the conversation about this being a two-horse race, I think One Battle After Another is going to clean house with not just Best Picture, but also Actor, Supporting Actor (Benicio), Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Cinematography. Between the two, I think Sinners deserves to win, but “Oscars so white” is more than just a catchphrase.
WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE CATEGORY OF NOMINEES?
Timothy English: As a writer, I always love the Screenplay categories and I think that there’s a lot of amazing and well-written flicks this year. A few of my favorite nominees include OBAA and Sinners (obviously), but Hamnet, Train Dreams, Bugonia, and Marty Supreme (that movie was freaking hilarious) are all right there. In the talent categories I love the Best Supporting Actor. I don’t think there’s a wrong choice for a winner, here. I’m really pushing for Delroy to get his chip because I think that would just be goddamn amazing. But I wouldn’t be upset if Benicio won, either.
Sophie Williams: This is one of the best acting lineups we’ve had in a long, long time, with Kate Hudson being the only real mark against this lineup for me (save for missing names). It’s hard for me to see our two Supporting categories as anything but the default best lineups this year, with both being functionally perfect and near (though not 100%) the lineups I would want heading into the noms. Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku bringing it in at the last minute really took both these categories over the top for me.
Warren Cantrell: The actress lineup in both Lead and Supporting are a lot of fun and highlight some amazing work, but I have to give the edge to the Supporting Actress field, if only because I, like Sophie, have no goddamned idea what Kate Hudson is doing here. Because Weapons got snubbed everywhere else, I’m pulling hard for Amy Madigan, but there really aren’t any bad choices between the dual threats in Sentimental Value, and the tone changing work both Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku put in and executed. I wouldn’t be mad at any of them winning, though again: give Weapons something, Academy!
Jonah Desneux: I really like Supporting Actor this year. There’s a massive range in the kind of performances they gave, and each of them would be deserving of the award. My personal preference is for either of the One Battle guys, but I’d be happy with any of the five walking away with the win.
Eric Melin: Best International Feature Film is my favorite category, because they’re all amazing movies. Two of them were nominated for Best Picture, but two others should have been. Sirat, a disorienting hero’s journey like no other that I’ve seen before, is way too strange to be considered in that category, but how many times have you seen that story told in a completely new way? Let me tell you, from the POV of a viewer that wanted to like Dune more and who recognizes that kind of story can only take you so far, this is a very special, rare movie. It Was Just an Accident, on the other hand, is a movie that is approachable by absolutely everybody, despite the fact that it takes place in present day Iran under the iron grip of an authoritarian regime. It’s such a human story, even as it continues to take more and more absurd turns.
Joe Jarosz: The Best Music (Original Song) group has multiple hits that dominated speakers last year. The KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack was on repeat because of my kid. And I rewatched “I Lied To You” at least a dozen times, bouncing back and forth from just taking in the music to watching the choreography of the whole scene.
IF YOU WERE AN OSCAR LOBBYIST, WHO WOULD YOU BE CAMPAIGNING HARD FOR, AND WHY?
Eric Melin: Rose Byrne, because there has been no formal campaign for her all through award season, and she got here purely on the strength of her performance in a little-seen movie.
Sophie Williams: I would be shocked if under half of us contributors didn’t say (or at some point think of saying) Rose Byrne here. An out of left field campaign for a career performance in a film as dark and funny and odd as If I Had Legs I’d Kick You actually turning into real Oscar buzz has been invigorating. This has generally been one of the most exciting Oscar seasons in some time, and her presence has played a big role in that. Beyond that, I just want to put all my support on Sirat for sound. International Feature is too packed for me to pick a real option there, but Laxe’s team’s psychedelic and playful use of auditory storytelling is so singular and I need more people to see and hear this thing.
Jonah Desneux: I’d go all in on having Jafar Panahi and his script collaborators win for Best Original Screenplay for It Was Just an Accident. The script is fantastic, and as a fan of Iranian Cinema, I’d love to see Panahi receive some long-deserved recognition. I’m not sure if he’s attending the ceremony, but a win would also give him a meaningful platform to discuss his work and the ongoing moment in Iran.
Joe Jarosz: To hell with it, if I’m an Oscar lobbyist, I’m going all in on F1. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it until the day I die: blockbusters are fun and should be celebrated for their art as much as the smaller, indie budget films. F1 isn’t going to win Best Picture, but give it Best Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound. The IMAX viewing for F1 was one of the coolest movie-going experiences I’ve ever had and stuff like that needs to be celebrated.
Warren Cantrell: Train Dreams all day every day, baby. No, it isn’t Terrence Malick-lite (as Eric so snarkily mentioned in a previous social comment), it’s the movie Malick would make if he hadn’t gotten lost up his own ass 30-ish years ago. Nothing I’ve seen in the last decade has moved me so much as this movie has, and I’d challenge any Academy voter to cast their lot for any other movie after sitting down and actually giving this one a chance.
Timothy English: Bro, I am all in on Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners: she was incredible. Amy Madigan will probably win, but man… I really liked Weapons but it was one of the most overrated movies of last year. (Yeah, I said it.)
Warren Cantrell: Tim, you rotten fucker: take that back!
LET’S SAY YOU ONLY GET ONE: WHAT’S YOUR HOT-TAKE PREDICTION?
Warren Cantrell: One Battle After Another is going to start its sweep early, and the continuing, rolling tide of its veritable victory tsunami is going to make for a boring evening. I mean…I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Also, I know I only get one prediction, but someone will thank Sal Saperstein.
Jonah Desneux: Wouldn’t it be crazy if Emma Stone shocked us again and won her third Oscar for Best Actress? I think people are downplaying the possibility and how monumental a moment it would be.
Sophie Williams: Sinners makes a last-minute push and wins Best Picture but loses Best Director: taking one Acting win in the process. Calling my shot now. (Note from Eric, who wrote his comments over three weeks ago: “I could totally see this happening!”)
Timothy English: Sinners for Best Picture. There’s so much freaking momentum for this movie right now: I love it. I know the Academy rarely bestows this great honor upon a genre flick, but Sinners is so much more than that and I think now would be the perfect time to finally reward a movie like that or to at least reward a movie like that again. Yeah, yeah, I know The Silence of Lambs won Best Picture, but I’m pretty sure The Lost Boys and Fright Night never did. They probably should have — maybe…what do I know? And I do mean the Tom Holland Fright Night, not the one with Doctor Who. Tom Holland the director, not Tom Holland Spider-Man. Also Michael B. Jordan could snag Best Actor. I didn’t think he had much of a chance until this past weekend, even as great as he is, because he’s really like the fourth or fifth best performance. But now I think he could take it (and then we can give Timmy the Oscar next year for Dune 3).
Eric Melin: Sean Penn wins his first award of the season (this was written before his BAFTA win) in a stacked category.
Joe Jarosz: Host Conan O’Brien is going to convince the actor who wins for Best Supporting Actor to hand over the statue. Why? Because Conan wasn’t nominated for If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. People won’t know if it’s a bit or not.
“Obvious Child” is the debut novel of Warren Cantrell, a film and music critic based out of Seattle, Washington. Mr. Cantrell has covered the Sundance and Seattle International Film Festivals, and provides regular dispatches for Scene-Stealers and The Playlist. Warren holds a B.A. and M.A. in History, and his hobbies include bourbon drinking, novel writing, and full-contact kickboxing.
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