ALERT: Be sure to enter our 2009 Oscar Pick ‘Em Contest for a free Netflix subscription!

BEST PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

“Slumdog Millionaire” won Best Picture at the Producer’s Guild Awards on Saturday and the Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards tonight, so that all but guarantees a Best Picture win for this little-international-picture-that-could on February 22 at the Oscars. In addition, the film has won 16 other critic’s and award show awards during this season. It’s closest rival, “Milk,” has four. For a complete awards tally for 2008-2009, click here. “The Dark Knight” and “Wall-E” have four wins each also, but in its infinite wisdom, the Academy has chosen not to nominate them. For a complete list of 2009 Oscar snubs, click here.

BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”

Sean Penn commented during his speech to accept the award for Best Actor in “Milk” that his win tonight (following Rourke’s Golden Globe win) meant that the “dogfight” between he and Mickey Rourke was on. He was no doubt referring to both actors’ status as frontrunners for the Oscar this year and called all the people like myself who need something to write about “idiots” for making the competition into a race. Fair enough. I get overly excited each year about these silly awards shows because I love going to the movies so much and I like to see great work like his and Rourke’s get recognized.

Now, because I like to bet on the Oscars as much as most people like to bet on the Super Bowl, on to the idiotic subject of predicting a winner. Penn’s win gives him a grand total of 17 Best Actor awards this season, which is one more than Rourke. Although that may seem like a narrow margin, the SAG is a better predictor of the Oscar than the Golden Globe. Actors make up a huge voting block of the Academy, and “Milk” is an issue-driven movie with a lot of goodwill behind it. My feeling today is that Penn will win that Oscar as well.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

The Actress and Supporting Actress categories are all screwed up, mainly because Kate Winslet is nominated in the lead Actress category for “The Reader” at the Oscars, but she won the Supporting Actress award for the same role at the SAGs tonight and at the Globes a couple of weeks ago! This makes her a clear frontrunner, along with Meryl Streep, who won the lead Actress SAG tonight. Ironically, the woman who beat Streep for the Golden Globe Actress award was also Winslet, but for a different movie: “Revolutionary Road.” Confused yet? Anne Hathaway tied with Streep for the Critic’s Choice award, and leads both Winslet and Streep for total awards this season, but she’s the third most likely to win the Oscar. Still, if the old “split the vote” theory proves true, Hathaway could slip in come Oscar time. But Winslet, a five-time Oscar loser, will most likely take home her first gold man come February 22.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”

With Winslet out of the way in the Supporting Actress category,  this Academy Award will be the first broadcast movie award not to go to her. This means it’s the most wide open race of the night. A look at previous awards from critics places Marisa Tomei (”The Wrestler”) in the lead, with one vote more than Penelope Cruz (”Vicky Cristina Barcelona”), and four more than Viola Davis (”Doubt”). My thinking is that this will go to Cruz (a previous nominee for “Volver”) over Tomei, who already has her Oscar (for “My Cousin Vinny”). Don’t count Davis out, though. Her one scene with Streep in “Doubt” was one of the most emotionally draining of the year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”

Heath Ledger will win the Best Supporting Actor category, and it will be because of his arresting and original portrayal  of one of the world’s best known villains, not because of his untimely death. His Joker from “The Dark Knight” will be on AFI’s revised Best Villains List as soon as they make it. It’s that good.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”

On January 31, the Director’s Guild will award Danny Boyle his Best Director trophy, to go along with the 20 other awards he’s won for “Slumdog Millionaire.” He’ll go on to win the Oscar as well.

“Wall-E” will win Best Animated Film, “Waltz with Bashir” will win Best Foreign Film, and “Man on Wire” will win Best Documentary, just like all the other awards in these categories have gone this year. (Technically, “Waltz” has a lock because Sweden didn’t nominate neorealist vampire flick “Let the Right One In,” which has garnered 14 wins up to now.)

In the screenplay categories, it’s pretty obvious too. “Slumdog” has won nine more critics’ awards for Adapted Screenplay than its closest (and most staid) competitor, “Frost/Nixon.” “Milk” will win the Original Screenplay because its closest competitor, “Rachel Getting Married,” wasn’t even nominated.

God, it’s almost depressing to note that most of the show is a done deal at this early date. Here are some more picks that I will boldly make at this time:

“Slumdog” will win Best Score, Best Song (for “Jai Ho”), and Film Editing. It will probably also win Best Cinematography, though pissed off “Dark Knight” fans may push that one over the top.

Makeup, Visual Effects, Art Direction, and Costumes will be the only awards that “Benjamin Button” will win out of its 13 nominations, because the word about “Gump” is out!

Sound Mixing and Sound Editing both went to “The Bourne Ultimatum” last year. This year’s “serious” action film is “The Dark Knight” (Even though it’s so much more than that!), so it will win both of these.

Tags: 2009 Oscar odds, 2009 oscar predictions, academy awards odds, oscar 2009 odds, oscar odds 2009, oscar predictions 2009

The Satellite Awards predict the Golden Globes, which predict the Oscars. In between, there are the Critic’s Choice Awards, AFI’s Top 10, and just about every film critic society from Los Angeles to New York. (I myself am a member of the KC Film Critic’s Society, and we’ll be voting on Jan. 6.)

Between now and February 22, 2009, when the 81st annual Academy Awards airs, there will be a lot of speculation about who will be nominated and who will win. Hollywood has a lot riding on this. Last year’s Oscar telecast, hosted by Jon Stewart, was the least watched show ever, with only 32 million viewers. On the other hand, with nominees and winners such as “There Will Be Blood” and “No Country for Old Men,” it was also an excellent showcase for daring filmmaking, so who cares, right?

Good news for film fans ahead, and bad news for ABC, who’s broadcasting the event until 2014: The New York Times reports, “The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, once the chummiest club in show business, is becoming more artsy and indie-minded just as much of the Hollywood establishment hoped to make it more commercial.” I maintain that the box-office success of the darker, more mature mainstream fare that’s creeping into our kids’ movies and superhero blockbusters (such as “Wall-E” and “The Dark Knight”) show that America’s tastes are becoming more discerning.

I also think this is due in large part to the rise in widescreen HDTV systems and DVD rentals. Remember the whole fullscreen vs. widescreen debate? That’s pretty much over now, and movie fans everywhere are finally enjoying films in their homes as they were meant to be presented.

Anyway, back to the Satellite Awards. This Oscar season is way up in the air because the writer’s strike crippled a lot of movies, bringing overall production down, and the few prestige pictures that did get made are just not panning out as critical successes. Looks like another big year for indies. While we all know the Golden Globes are hosted by the mysterious Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who hosts the Satellite Awards? That, my friends, is the similar-sounding International Press Academy.

Well, the International Press Academy has published the earliest list of award nominations for 2009, having probably seen most if not all of the year’s releases, and there are some big snubs in their Satellite nominations. Most telling? “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” the historical drama featuring Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett, directed by David Fincher, received only three nominations total and none for Best Picture, Drama, or its actors or director (just cinematography, screenplay, and costume design). This is the first blow to a movie that looked as if it may be a big frontrunner.

Clint Eastwood’s late addition “Gran Torino” (rushed to be completed for a 2008 release after his “Changeling” didn’t get enough positive attention) has zero, count ‘em, zero nominations. Hell, even “Changeling” got two nominations (Angelina Jolie for Best Actress and a Best Cinematography nod). Any chances that “Australia” once had at Best Picture are also surely evaporated by now as well.

Oddly, even though the Satellites nominated Christopher Nolan for Best Director, they snubbed “The Dark Knight” for Best Picture, Drama in favor of indie sleeper “Frozen River,” which also got a nod for its lead actress Melissa Leo, inching her Oscar chances ever closer. More oddities: I’m glad to see Josh Brolin nominated for “W.” but the Oliver Stone film was most assuredly not a comedy, even though it was marketed as such. Also, despite the push to recognize it in for Best Picture,”Wall-E” is relegated to the animated feature category. Check out the list here:

BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
“The Reader ”
“Slumdog Millionaire ”
“Revolutionary Road ”
“Frost/Nixon ”
“Milk ”
“Frozen River ”

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY/MUSICAL
“Happy-Go-Lucky ”
“Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist ”
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona ”
“Tropic Thunder ”
“In Bruges ”
“Choke ”

BEST DIRECTOR
Thomas McCarthy, “The Visitor”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler ”
Mark Ruffalo, “What Doesn’t Kill You ”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor ”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon ”
Leonardo Dicaprio, “Revolutionary Road ”
Sean Penn, “Milk ”

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River ”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling ”
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married ”
Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long ”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt ”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader ”

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL
Ricky Gervais, “Ghost Town ”
Sam Rockwell, “Choke ”
Josh Brolin, “W. ”
Michael Cera, “Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist ”
Brendan Gleeson, “In Bruges ”
Michael Cera, “Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist ”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Brothers Bloom ”

BEST ACTRESS: COMEDY/MUSICAL
Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky ”
Meryl Streep, “Mamma Mia! ”
Lisa Kudrow, “Kabluey ”
Kat Dennings, “Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist ”
Catherine Deneuve, “A Christmas Tale ”
Debra Messing, “Nothing Like the Holidays ”

The awards will be given out on Dec. 14 at the Century City InterContinental Hotel in LA.

Tags: 2009, academy, announced, awards, Earliest, golden globes 2009, indicator, oscar, oscar 2009, oscar odds 2009, oscar predictions 2009, satellite awards 2009, yet