Oscar odds become clearer after deflated Golden Globes
posted by Eric Melin on January 14, 2008

Wow, what a deflated night for Hollywood. So this is what happens when all the beautiful people don’t have anyone to write their words for them. Actually, the ironic thing about the writer’s strike shutting down the Golden Globes is that they are the traditionally more laid-back, partygoing of the two major Hollywood awards events of the year, and that, hads the Screen Actors Guild allowed the actors to cross the picket lines, the only thing not having any writers there would have affected would have been those lame little half-speech/introductions that the actors give before announcing an award. (”Without the writer, the actors would have nothing to say. Which is why the Screenplay is so important. Here are the nominees for Best Original Screenplay:”)

Well, let’s look at the winners and see how this affects Oscar chances (even though the Globes have been known to get it wrong– way wrong– in the past couple of years– they loved “Dreamgirls” which didn’t even get an Oscar nod, and ignored “Crash,” which won Best Picture).

Cate Blanchett gains a little ground on Amy Ryan. The two of them and Tilda Swinton are clearly the front-runners for the Supporting Actress Oscar, but Ryan had won almost everything else up to this point.

‘Atonement’ over ‘No Country’? ‘Sweeney Todd’ over ‘Juno’? Wow. Kind of a shocker. These two Best Picture awards from the Globes show that the Globes are again pretty out of touch, but we have to give ‘Atonement’ some props. After Joe Wright was snubbed by the Director’s Guild, I was ready to write it off, but this will certainly help its chances for an Oscar nomination. I still think this is the last we’ll see of ‘Sweeney Todd’ in this category, with ‘Juno’ being a more likely candidate for Best Picture at the Oscars.

This, combined with Julian Schnabel beating the Coens for Director, means that the early stranglehold that ‘No Country’ had on Picture/Director is slipping. Kudos to Schnabel and a terrific film for pulling off the upset in the Director category.

The only film I liked better than ‘No Country,’ however, only won the award it was expected to win” Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoe-in for Best Actor after winning this, and Javier Bardem is close but no cigar in the Supporting Actor race. The only reason Bardem may not get it is that Hal Holbrook, not nominated for Supporting Actor at the Globes but nominated for the Screen Actors Guild Award (which is a more accurate indicator), will definitely be nominated for the Sup. Actor. he may pull off an Alan Arkin-like career win and unexpectedly take the Oscar home next month.

Because Julie Christie and Marion Cotillard both won in their seperate Actress categories last night, they are both still the front-runners, with a slight edge to Christie for not being in a French movie.

The Coens beating Diablo Cody for ‘Juno’ in Screenplay is the only time she’ll lose that category, because the Globes don’t split them up into Adapted and Original like they do at the Oscars. ‘Juno’ will win Original, ‘No Country’ will win Adapted, simple as that.

Eddir Vedder won the song Globe for warbling his way through Sean Penn’s ‘Into the Wild,’ but that’s just because Marketa Irglova and Glen Hansard were inexplicably left out of this category for ‘Once.’ If Oscar remembers them, (they will) they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Anyway, that’s my take on last night’s Golden Globes hourlong Billy Bush hosted press conference. It was an awful night, but at least it was over in an hour. Here’s the nominees and winners, with a little * before each winner.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

American Gangster
Imagine Entertainment/Scott Free Productions; Universal Pictures

* Atonement
Working Title Films Limited; Focus Features

Eastern Promises
Kudos Pictures/Serendipity Point Films; Focus Features

The Great Debaters
Harpo Films; The Weinstein Company/MGM

Michael Clayton
Samuels Media and Castle Rock Entertainment a Mirage Enterprises/Section 8 Production; Warner Bros. Pictures

No Country For Old Men
A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production; Miramax Films/Paramount Vantage

There Will Be Blood
A Joanne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production; Paramount Vantage/Miramax Films

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age

* Julie Christie – Away From Her

Jodie Foster – The Brave One

Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart

Keira Knightley – Atonement

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

George Clooney – Michael Clayton

* Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

James McAvoy – Atonement

Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises

Denzel Washington – American Gangster

Best Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy

Across The Universe
Revolution Studios; Sony Pictures Releasing

Charlie Wilson’s War
Universal Pictures/Relativity Media/Participant Productions/Playtone; Universal Pictures

Hairspray
Zadan/Meron Productions / New Line Cinema in association with Ingenious Film Partners; New Line Cinema

Juno
Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production; Fox Searchlight Pictures

* Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Parkes/MacDonald and Zanuck Company; DreamWorks/Paramount Distribution / Warner Bros. Pictures

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Amy Adams – Enchanted

Nikki Blonsky – Hairspray

Helena Bonham Carter – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

* Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose

Ellen Page – Juno

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical Or Comedy

* Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl

Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson’s War

Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages

John C. Reilly – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story

Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

* Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There

Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson’s War

Saoirse Ronan – Atonement

Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone

Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford

* Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War

John Travolta – Hairspray

Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton

Best Animated Feature Film

Bee Movie
DreamWorks Animation; DreamWorks Animation

* Ratatouille
Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures; Pixar Animation Studios

The Simpsons Movie
Gracie Films; Twentieth Century Fox

Best Foreign Language Film

4 Months, 3 Weeks And 2 Days (Romania)
The Country of Romania
Mobra Films; IFC Films

* The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (France, United States)
The Country of France and The Country of United States
A Kennedy/Marshall Company and Jon Kilik Production; Miramax Films

The Kite Runner (United States)
The Country of United States
DreamWorks Pictures Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Paramount Classics Participant Productions Present a Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Parkes/Macdonald Production Distributed by Paramount Classics

Lust, Caution (Taiwan)
The Country of Taiwan
Mr. Yee Productions LLC; Focus Features

Persepolis (France)
The Country of France
247 Films; Sony Pictures Classics

Best Director - Motion Picture

Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen – No Country For Old Men

* Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell And The Butterfly

Ridley Scott – American Gangster

Joe Wright – Atonement

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

Atonement
Written by Christopher Hampton

Charlie Wilson’s War
Written by Aaron Sorkin

The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Written by Ronald Harwood

Juno
Written by Diablo Cody

* No Country For Old Men
Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

Grace Is Gone
Composed by Clint Eastwood

The Kite Runner
Composed by Alberto Iglesias

* Atonement
Composed by Dario Marianelli

Eastern Promises
Composed by Howard Shore

Into The Wild
Composed by Michael Brook, Kaki King and Eddie Vedder

Best Original Song - Motion Picture

“Despedida” – Love In The Time Of Cholera
Music By: Shakira and Antonio Pinto
Lyrics By: Shakira

“Grace Is Gone” – Grace Is Gone
Music By: Clint Eastwood
Lyrics By: Carole Bayer Sager

* “Guaranteed” – Into The Wild
Music & Lyrics By: Eddie Vedder

“That’s How You Know” – Enchanted
Music By: Alan Menken
Lyrics By: Stephen Schwartz

“Walk Hard” – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
Music & Lyrics By: Marshall Crenshaw, John C. Reilly, Judd Apatow and Jake Kasdan



2 Responses to “Oscar odds become clearer after deflated Golden Globes”

  1. #1 POSTED BY ChrisKnudsen, Jan 14th, 2008 2:01 pm

    Go go Eddie Vedder. Ok, tonight I am going to watch either Diving Bell and Atonement or the Savages and Atonement. I hope Cate Blanchett wins it for Best Supporting Actress even though I don’t view her as a supporter. Same with Casey Affleck. Jesse James is not the main character of the Assassination of Jesse James, Robert Ford is. God, I love that movie. I hope it somehow magically becomes a surprise nominee. See you at Cloverfield tomorrow dude.

  2. #2 POSTED BY FilmNerdJamie, Jan 14th, 2008 7:21 pm

    ATONEMENT’s win wasn’t a shock…nor does it suddenly put it “back in the race!” It’s the type of film the Hollywood Foreign Press usually eats up. However, the lack of excitement for the film (box-office and reviews) and its PGA/DGA snubs have done it in (in terms of the Oscars!) My guess is it suffers the same fate as DREAMGIRLS last year (i.e. the most nominations…but with no “Picture” or “Director” nods!)

    People seem to forget the Globes have failed to call the “Best Picture” winner correctly for the last 3 years in a row…and this will make it 4th imo. You’re 100% on the money, Eric. They’re out of touch. More than any other awards, they love to have their asses kissed and cleaned by the stars. And…they didn’t get that this year which frankly I found refreshing. I was glad to be done with it all after a half-hour (yes even the horrible jokes from “JACKASS HOLLYWOOD” and “ENTERTAINMENT” Tonight hosts!)

    The film to watch out for (if you ask me…which you didn’t, but I’ll say anyway) is MICHAEL CLAYTON. There’s apparently alot of support for it and I could see it pulling a MILLION DOLLAR BABY/CRASH style upset win next month. Although I’m not calling it. My $$$s still on NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN to (rightfully) win the big-cheese. But…don’t color me surprised if CLAYTON (or possibly JUNO) took it instead.

Leave a Reply