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BEST PICTURE
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Slumdog Millionaire” won Best Picture at the Producer’s Guild Awards on Saturday and the Best Ensemble award at the Screen Actor’s Guild Awards tonight, so that all but guarantees a Best Picture win for this little-international-picture-that-could on February 22 at the Oscars. In addition, the film has won 16 other critic’s and award show awards during this season. It’s closest rival, “Milk,” has four. For a complete awards tally for 2008-2009, click here. “The Dark Knight” and “Wall-E” have four wins each also, but in its infinite wisdom, the Academy has chosen not to nominate them. For a complete list of 2009 Oscar snubs, click here.
BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Richard Jenkins, “The Visitor”
Sean Penn commented during his speech to accept the award for Best Actor in “Milk” that his win tonight (following Rourke’s Golden Globe win) meant that the “dogfight” between he and Mickey Rourke was on. He was no doubt referring to both actors’ status as frontrunners for the Oscar this year and called all the people like myself who need something to write about “idiots” for making the competition into a race. Fair enough. I get overly excited each year about these silly awards shows because I love going to the movies so much and I like to see great work like his and Rourke’s get recognized.
Now, because I like to bet on the Oscars as much as most people like to bet on the Super Bowl, on to the idiotic subject of predicting a winner. Penn’s win gives him a grand total of 17 Best Actor awards this season, which is one more than Rourke. Although that may seem like a narrow margin, the SAG is a better predictor of the Oscar than the Golden Globe. Actors make up a huge voting block of the Academy, and “Milk” is an issue-driven movie with a lot of goodwill behind it. My feeling today is that Penn will win that Oscar as well.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
The Actress and Supporting Actress categories are all screwed up, mainly because Kate Winslet is nominated in the lead Actress category for “The Reader” at the Oscars, but she won the Supporting Actress award for the same role at the SAGs tonight and at the Globes a couple of weeks ago! This makes her a clear frontrunner, along with Meryl Streep, who won the lead Actress SAG tonight. Ironically, the woman who beat Streep for the Golden Globe Actress award was also Winslet, but for a different movie: “Revolutionary Road.” Confused yet? Anne Hathaway tied with Streep for the Critic’s Choice award, and leads both Winslet and Streep for total awards this season, but she’s the third most likely to win the Oscar. Still, if the old “split the vote” theory proves true, Hathaway could slip in come Oscar time. But Winslet, a five-time Oscar loser, will most likely take home her first gold man come February 22.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
With Winslet out of the way in the Supporting Actress category, this Academy Award will be the first broadcast movie award not to go to her. This means it’s the most wide open race of the night. A look at previous awards from critics places Marisa Tomei (”The Wrestler”) in the lead, with one vote more than Penelope Cruz (”Vicky Cristina Barcelona”), and four more than Viola Davis (”Doubt”). My thinking is that this will go to Cruz (a previous nominee for “Volver”) over Tomei, who already has her Oscar (for “My Cousin Vinny”). Don’t count Davis out, though. Her one scene with Streep in “Doubt” was one of the most emotionally draining of the year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, “Milk”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road”
Heath Ledger will win the Best Supporting Actor category, and it will be because of his arresting and original portrayal of one of the world’s best known villains, not because of his untimely death. His Joker from “The Dark Knight” will be on AFI’s revised Best Villains List as soon as they make it. It’s that good.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
On January 31, the Director’s Guild will award Danny Boyle his Best Director trophy, to go along with the 20 other awards he’s won for “Slumdog Millionaire.” He’ll go on to win the Oscar as well.
“Wall-E” will win Best Animated Film, “Waltz with Bashir” will win Best Foreign Film, and “Man on Wire” will win Best Documentary, just like all the other awards in these categories have gone this year. (Technically, “Waltz” has a lock because Sweden didn’t nominate neorealist vampire flick “Let the Right One In,” which has garnered 14 wins up to now.)
In the screenplay categories, it’s pretty obvious too. “Slumdog” has won nine more critics’ awards for Adapted Screenplay than its closest (and most staid) competitor, “Frost/Nixon.” “Milk” will win the Original Screenplay because its closest competitor, “Rachel Getting Married,” wasn’t even nominated.
God, it’s almost depressing to note that most of the show is a done deal at this early date. Here are some more picks that I will boldly make at this time:
“Slumdog” will win Best Score, Best Song (for “Jai Ho”), and Film Editing. It will probably also win Best Cinematography, though pissed off “Dark Knight” fans may push that one over the top.
Makeup, Visual Effects, Art Direction, and Costumes will be the only awards that “Benjamin Button” will win out of its 13 nominations, because the word about “Gump” is out!
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing both went to “The Bourne Ultimatum” last year. This year’s “serious” action film is “The Dark Knight” (Even though it’s so much more than that!), so it will win both of these.
Here in Argentina, we’re behind on everything. I only got to see W. last Friday. But the Oscar nominees are finally about to roll through town. I’m super-geeked to catch The Wrestler and Slumdog Millionaire, but probably won’t have time to catch up on the rest of them.
My only real prediction at this point is that every award for which The Dark Knight is nominated will go in its direction (ala Lord of the Rings in 2004).
Regarding Best Picture, it used to be so easy to predict who Oscar would choose. Take the cheesiest, least artful film nominated and it was a lock. The more I hated a movie, the more sure I was that it would win - most obvious to me was when Crash defeated Brokeback Mountain, but this had been the case ever since Forrest Gump defeated both Pulp Fiction and The Shawshank Redemption (with supbsequent winners including Gladiator, Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient, and Chicago). But the last two years have shown that perhaps the Oscar voters are evolving a bit, with The Departed and No Country for Old Men beating out the war epics and feel-goods. So where does that leave us? My “history” gut tells me that Benjamin Button has to be the odds-on favorite. But my “recent history” gut has other ideas. Of course, since I haven’t seen any of the movies yet, what do I know? Nothing yet…
I pretty much agree with all of that, especially Winslet. I didn’t see here in the movie, but this appears to be her year. The only one I might disagree with is “Man on Wire”. That sucker put me to sleep….twice. I finally gave up. Perhaps I was just tired. Plus, I don’t really have any idea what it is going up against.
If memory serves me correctly, poster “Reed” really, REALLY liked “Gladiator”. He would have liked it even more if Brian de Palma directed it.
Hmmm… Jai Ho will be the Best Song? I don’t think so! People who like Slumdog will have 2 songs to choose from. So I think Wall-E will end up getting Best Song too.
I think that TDK will be taking cinematography because no other film this year has had as breathtaking shots as TDK alone, plus Pfister has it coming. Also think that Wall-E will take sound editing because Burt’s work was outstanding and probably much easier to notice in the long run. You are right in saying that its sad that these small categories are the ones which don’t seem like certainties. I’m also all for Rourke.
Pfister certainly has a shot, I just don’t like his chances. Now, the “Wall-E” sound editing award is a REALLY good pick. Nice call! It certainly deserves it, it’s just that the whole Academy votes on the winners rather than just the sound engineers who nominated them. Will they recognize the contribution Burtt made to the film or will they simply choose the loudest movie (TDK)?
I think that the Best Actor award should go to Sean Penn. He has my vote for his consistent work. I trust that the Academy will look at Mr. Rourke’s work and see that there is ample opportunity for him to put himself together in another film in another year. And perhaps he will win a Statute in the future!!! As far as Best Actress. Meryl Streep in “Doubt” is by far the performance of a lifetime in my opinion. It would be nice for Ms. Winslet. But I fear she will strike out again..Simply because of so much anticipation. If she had 2 nom’s then…perhaps she would win one. Best Supp Actor and Actress. Well, I would be very interesting if Ledger did in fact win a postumous award. But I fear not. That leaves the other 4 fellows in the running. Ms. Davis, hands down for the award for Supp. Actress.
Thanks.
Streep was amazing last year.
Michael Shannon fitting as the acting nomination for Rev Road.. bravo academy!
Derrick Giles you are a complete idiot!!! Sean Penn should not win for his poor acting performance in Milk and that is exactly what it was “POOR.” Rather than “Making Believe” and “Being Believable,” he worked too hard as he tends to do and played a character rather than just being and if you have any understanding of the art form of acting you would know better than to praise his performance in Milk. Whether you agree or not, I could care less! And as far as I’m concerned Mickey Rourke was very believable in The Wrestler, very vulnerable and I do not know what you are talking about in terms of him putting himself together in another film-you like others, have criticized Mr. Rourke unfairly and I think it is a pity that he is judged too harshly (for whatever your reason) and not for his talent alone-he is currently one of the few actors today who truly understands the craft and I am sick and tired of all those idiots who think they know the craft such as Mr. Penn when he really does not! He certainly does not get my vote and neither do you
Jeez, Mina, did you try to get an autograph from Mr Penn and he blew you off or something? I have not seen ‘Milk and cannot judge his performance in this, but although he’s had some missteps: ‘Casualties of War’ and ‘I am Sam’ come to mind, he has a very impressive resume starting around 1981 with ‘Taps’ and running through ‘Bad Boys’, ‘At Close Range’, ‘Colors’, ‘State of Grace’, ‘U-Turn’, ‘The Game’, ‘Hurlyburly’,
… in 2003 alone he could’ve won two best actor oscars for ‘Mystic River’ and especially ‘21 Grams’. I’ll forgive him the occasional bad decision, because he’s one of the best actors alive.
I’m telling you who the winners will be in major categories and I’m usually right about 15 of 18 major awards each year:
Best Supp Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supp Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Best Film: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Art Direction, Makeup: Ben Button
Best Cinematography, Score, Song, Film Editing: Slumdog
Best Sound Editing, Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Costume: The Duchess
Also, just to add some notes: Major snub this year was a Best Actor nom for Leonardo Dicaprio for Revolutionary Road…I am NOT a fan and his past performances weren’t all that to me, but he captured my attention in this movie. Clint Eastwood was snubbed and well-so..he acts the same in all his movies. Angelina Jolie is not deserving for a nom. Revolutionary Road should be nominated in place of Nixon. No nom should be for Robert Downey or Josh Brolin. Their performances were not all that. Bruce Springsteen had the best song from The Wrestler, but was not nominated..what a waste!! There should be five song nominees including his and throw in something from Cadillac Records. As far as Mr. Ledger is concerned, everyone is talking about how he deserves to win and the debate over his death and being a posthumous winner. He is quite deserving and should win regardless of whether or not he died..his performance is THAT GOOD! He was the reason I wanted to see Batman. Other than his performance, TDK was not all that in terms of great movie-making and ran too long and got too far-fetched/silly at the end.
Jay,
What about the minor categories? what do you think who the winners will be? Regards.
Wall-E for best song! Gabriel rulz!!
Nominating Angelina Jolie for best actress in Changeling is like nominating Pat Sajak as most charismatic man in Hollywood. Are you kidding me!? Changeling was a dreadul film in which Ms. Jolie exhibited all the charm of a distaff Jack Webb. It just goes to show the Academy Awards are about as upstanding as a Citibank CEO.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Sup. Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Sup. Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Milionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costumes: The Duchess
Best Makeup: Benjamin Button
Best Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Best Art Direction: Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Score: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Film: Wall-E
Best Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Best Documentary: Man On Wire
Best Doc. Short: Witness
Best Animated Short: Presto
Best Live Action Short: Toyland
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
SNUBS:
-The Reader for Best Makeup
-Rebecca Hall for Vicky Christina Barcelona
-Revolutionary Road for Best Picture; Sam Mendes for Best Director; Leo DiCaprio for Best Actor
-Benicio del Toro for Best Actor
-Clint Eastwood for Best Actor
-The Wrestler for Best Original Song
Meryl Streep is the greatest actress ever born.
actor: micky rourke
actress: kate winslet
supporting actor: heath ledger
supporting actress: marisa tomei
movie: benjamin button
i bet that the born genesis of my country A.R.RAHAMAN baggs all the awards for which he is nominated….
I think A.R.rahman will get all three awards he is nominated.his music is beyond languages
Rourke should win for best actor. Penn is great in Milk, but MIckey nailed a great character in a low budget brilliant film
Heath Ledger wins best supporting actor or I will never watch the oscars again… he was brilliant.
Eureka! This is mostly off the current subject but I have got it! After much consideration (which by the way I think a new post should be started on this subject) I have come up with the best villian/character combo if Nolan produces another Batman film.
Crispin Glover/The Riddler!!! After watching his late 80’s performance on David Letterman, and his twinge for all things dark and surreal, I think that he could be the perfect fit for who the Riddler is. What do you guys think?